← Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.6%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1143
· median 1143
· range 1143–1143
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1059
Q1 1133
Q3 1288
1455
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Wind Exia | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
